Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. Losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first three months of the season puts them at a serious disadvantage, and they chose to make surprisingly few acquisitions over the offseason after two years of near-frenetic activity. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. The Rays are another possible answer, though. Its very likely they'll add at least one outfielder and one starting pitcher to the roster, which could move these numbers even more in Atlantas favor. If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Speaking of unanswered questions: Will Christian Yelich return to being the MVP-caliber player he was in 2018 and 19, or is the seriously diminished production of the last two years his new baseline? and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Here's how PECOTA sees the 2022 season: This is just the NL East of course, you can view the full projections here. The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors by Retrosheet. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. That they can do for $25M and trades. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. Its not just their new additions either. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. Make no mistake even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected point total, its probability of . The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the worlds most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. Every spot of the lineup is projected to be worth at least two WAR, even the shortstop crater that Jeremy Pea will seek to fill. These projected standings do take the strength of schedule into consideration, which will be a bit more uniform now that the league has rebalanced the schedule. One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. And then theres the Orioles. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that. The NHL has passed the mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 regular season. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. The RosterResource 2023 Opening Day Roster Tracker Is Here! Hes about half of their payroll now. Below are the previous parts. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Braves News: Dana Brown Interviews with Astros, Thoughts on Extending Max Fried, more, Keeping Max Fried is more important than Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. There are promising arms in the system in Jack Leiter and Cole Winn, but theyre likely a few seasons away from making an impact. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Even though the projections dont see it, is there any doubt that their pitching staff will be one of the best run prevention units in all of baseball? They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) The exercise continues this offseason. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Not by much but their minimum payroll boost looks to be in the $15-25M. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. 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